Robert P. Trost

Publications

2000 - Present

“MHE Replacement Model” (with Geoff Shaw) CNA, CME D0021251.A3, December 2009.

"Updating the Fleet Ordnance Support Model (FOS-M) to Include Ordnance Logistic Support and Explosive Safety and Activities”, (with Michael Ye), CRM D0018964.A1/SR1
September, 2008, with accompanying Demo Calculator Excel Model.

“What Factors Drive Recurring Environmental Costs?” (with Michael Ye), CNA, CIM D0018756.A1/Final, August, 2008, with accompanying Demo Calculator Excel Model.

"Is the U.S. Coast Guard Drug Interdiction Program Working?" (with Lauren Bell, Kim Jackson, Jonathon Mintz, and Kent Nordstrom) CNA Research Memorandum, CRM D0016363.A2/Final, July, 2007.

"Computing the Return on Noise Reduction Investments in Navy Ships: A Life-Cycle Cost Approach," (with M. Bowes, G. Shaw, R. Trost) Center for Naval Analyses, CNA Research Memorandum D0014732/A2, September 2006.

"Tired Titanium: A Fatigue-Based Approach to Aircraft Inventory Management and Acquisition Planning," (with Chad Meyerhoefer), Defense and Peace Economics, February, 2006.

"Is the U.S. Coast Guard"s Migrant Interdiction Program Working?" (with Kent Nordstrom) CNAC, CRM D0010204.A1/SR1, July, 2004.

"The Relationship of Weapon System Cannibalization to Weapon System Mission Capability", (with Cdr. James Hoover, Craig Goodwyn, James Jondrow, and Michael Ye), Military Operations Research, Volume 9, Number 2, pp. 31-42, 2004.

"Estimation of Short Run and Long Run Elasticities of Energy Demand from Panel Data Using Shrinkage Estimators" (with Hongyi Li, G. S. Maddala and Frederick Joutz), in Recent Developments in the Econometrics of Panel Data: Volume I, edited by Badi H. Baltagi, The International Library of Critical Writings Series, Edgar Elgar Publisher, 2003.

"The Effect of Activation and Deployment on Selected Reserve Attrition Since 9/11." (with Michelle Dolfini-Reed, G Shaw, and D. Gregory), Center for Naval Analyses, , CNA Research MemorandumD0015629.A2/Final, March, 2007.

"An Economic Analysis of Consumer Response to Natural Gas Prices", (with Fred Joutz), American Gas Association (AGA), March, 2007.

"Statistical Analysis of Hearing Loss Among Navy Personnel", (with Geoffrey Shaw), Vol. 172, No. 4, Military Medicine, April, 2007.

"Does Employer General Training Pay? Evidence from the U. S. Navy" (with Federico Garcia and Jeremy Arkes), Economics of Education Review, Volume 21/1, pp 19-27, 2002.

"Reducing Government Spending with Privatization Competitions: A Study of the Department of Defense Experience"(with Chris Snyder and Derek Trunkey), The Review of Economics and Statistics, pp. 108-117, 83(1), 2001.

"Bidding Behavior in DoD's Commercial Activities Competitions", (with Chris Snyder and Derek Trunkey), Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, pp. 21-42, vol. 20, No. 1, 2001.

"Retail Food Price Forecasting at ERS: The Process, Methodology and Performance from 1984 to 1997" (with Joutz, Hallahan, Clauson and Denbaly), United States Department of Agriculture, ERS, Technical Bulletin Number 1885, May, 2000.

1990 - 2000

"A Stratified Two-Stage Sampling Design for Estimating Inventory Accuracy of an Ordinance Site," (with J. Jondrow and R. Trost) Center for Navy Analyses, CRM 99-107, September 1999.

"Modeling and Forecasting U. S. Patent Application Filings" (with Joutz, Adams, Kim and Mastrogianis), Journal of Policy Modeling, pp. 491 - 535, Vol. 19(4), 1997.

"Estimation of Short Run and Long Run Elasticities of Energy Demand from Panel Data Using Shrinkage Estimators" (with Hongyi Li, G. S. Maddala and Frederick Joutz), Journal of Business and Economics Statistics, Vol. 15, No. 1, pp. 90 - 100, January, 1997.

"Estimation des elasticites de court et de long termes de la demande d'electricite sur donnees de panel a partir d'estimateurs a restrecisseur" (with G. S. Maddala and Hongyi Li), In French, Economie & Prevision, Number 126, Volume 5, 1996.

"The Impact of Motor Gasoline Taxes on Consumption and Revenue" (with Fred Joutz), Proceedings of the International Energy Economics Association, October, 1996.

Principles of Microeconomics Lecture Notes, Kendall/Hunt Publishers, Dubuque, IA, 1996.

"Bayesian Time Series Forecasting Models of Quarterly Residential Gas Demand for the District of Columbia" (with Frederick Joutz and Don Fouts) American Gas Association Forecasting Review, March, 1996, 23 - 39.

"Can Statistical Problems in Tests for Mortgage Loan Discrimination be Resolved?" (with Robert Phillips), in Fair Lending Analysis, Anthony Yezer, editor, American Bankers Association, 1995.

"An Integrated Bayesian Vector Autogregression and Error Correction Model for Forecasting Electricity Consumption and Prices" (with Frederick Joutz and G. S. Maddala), Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 14, No. 3, May, 1995, 287-310.

"Bias in Estimates of Discrimination and Default in Mortgage Lending: The Effects of Simultaneity and Self-Selection" (with Robert Phillips and Anthony Yezer), Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Vol. 9, 1994, 197-217.

Forecasting State Motor Gasoline Demand with Shrinkage Estimators," (with Fred Joutz), Proceedings of the Federal Forecasters Conference, Washington D.C., October, 1994.

"Measurement Error Bias In Gas Appliance Unit Energy Consumption Estimates For End Use Forecasting Models" (with Gloria D. Brown and Walter D. Woods), American Gas Association Forecasting Review, Vol. 4, April, 1994, 24-52.

Modeling and Forecasting U.S. Patent Application Filings," (with Joutz, Adams, Kim and Mastrogianis), Proceedings of the Federal Forecasters Conference, Washington D.C., September, 1993.

"Using Stochastic Simulation to Test the Effect of Seasonal Adjustment on Forecast Standard Errors of Motor Gasoline Demand," (with Fred Joutz), International Journal of Forecasting, 8, 1992.

"Evaluation of a Boiler/Furnace Replacement Pilot Program: Multivariate Regression Analysis Versus PRISM," (with Irene Olson) Proceedings of the 1992 ACEEE Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings, 4(1992), 169-176.

"Evaluating the Effectiveness of Residential Pilot Study Energy Conservation Programs Conducted by Washington Gas, District of Columbia Division" (with Irene Olson), Proceedings of the Natural Gas Least Cost Planning Conference, Washington, D.C., April, 1992.

"Comparison of BVAR and Unrestricted VAR Forecasting Models of Motor Gasoline and Distillate Prices and Quantities." (with F. Joutz), Short Term Energy Outlook: Supplement, Department of Energy, January 1992.

"Obtaining Forecast Standard Errors of Motor Gasoline Demand with Stochastic Simulation" (with F. Joutz), Short Term Energy Outlook: Supplement, Department of Energy, January 1991.

1979 - 1990

"Assessment of Pretrial Urine Testing in the District of Columbia" (with A. Yezer), National Institute of Justice: Issues and Practices, U.S. Department of Justice, December 1989.

"Sequential Selection and Selectivity in a Model of the Market for Bail Bond" (with A. Yezer), Proceedings of the American Statistical Association, Business and Economics Section, August 1985.

"Market Structure and Rivalry: New Evidence with a Non-Linear Model" (with Michael Marlow and John Link), Review of Economics and Statistics, February 1984.
"Technical Training and Earnings: A Polytomous Choice Model with Selectivity" (with Lung-fei Lee), Review of Economics and Statistics, February 1984.

"On Measuring Discrimination in Loan Market" (with G.S. Maddala), Housing Finance Review, September 1982.

"Interpretation of Error Covariances with Non-Random Data: An Empirical Illustration of Returns to College Education," Atlantic Economic Journal, September 1981.

"Labor Force Earnings and College Choice of Young Women: An Examination of Selectivity Bias and Comparative Advantage" (with R.P.H. Fishe and P. Lurie), Economics of Education Review, Spring 1981.

"Alternative Formulations of the Nerlove-Press Model" (with G.S. Maddala), Journal of Econometrics, May 1981.

"Estimation of a Child Spacing Model with the Cox Regression Technique" (with Phil Lurie), Proceedings of the American Statistical Association, Business and Statistics Section, August 1980.

"Some Extensions of the Nerlove-Press Model" (with G.S. Maddala), Proceedings of the American Statistical Association, Business and Statistics Section, August 1980.

"Testing for Structural Change by the D-Methods in Switching Simultaneous Equations Models" (with L.F. Lee and G.S. Maddala), Proceedings of the American Statistical Association, Business and Economic Statistics Section, August 1980.

"Asymptotic Covariance Matrices of Two Stage Probit and Two Stage Tobit Methods for Simultaneous Equations Models with Selectivity" (with L.F. Lee and G.S. Maddala), Econometrica, March 1980.

"Returns to College Education: An Investigation of Self-Selection Bias Based on the Project Talent Data" (with L. Kenny, L.F. Lee, and G.S. Maddala), International Economic Review, October 1979.

"The Response of State Government Receipts to Economic Fluctuations and the Allocation of Counter-Cyclical Revenue Sharing Grants" (with R.C. Vogel), The Review of Economics and Statistics, August 1979.

"Estimation of Some Limited Dependent Models with Application to Housing Demand" (with L.F. Lee), Journal of Econometrics, December 1978.